Visualising Uganda’s (and others’) tax treaties

Interesting news from Uganda, where the government announced in its latest budget that it has finished formulating its new tax treaty policy, and will be renegotiating treaties that don’t comply. Seatini and ActionAid Uganda will no doubt chalk this up as a success! The news report linked to above also states that the the government plans to amend the awkwardly-worded anti-treaty-shopping clause in its Income Tax Act, although there are clearly still doubts about its application. According to a report in Tax Notes International, there’s an ongoing mutual agreement procedure between the Netherlands and Uganda to try to settle the ongoing Zain capital gains case, which turns on the applicability of that clause. 105_screen_shot_2016_04_29_at_6_11_10_am

So this is good timing for my working paper with Jalia Kangave, based on a submission we made to the Ugandan government’s review, to have been published by the International Centre for Tax and Development.

Here’s a link to that paper on Researchgate

When writing that paper, I thought that Uganda had a pretty good record of tax treaty negotiations, but some new visualisations of the ActionAid Tax Treaties Dataset suggest otherwise. For these I am indebted to Zack Korman, and to tax twitter for introducing me to him. Below are some maps Zach has made using the ‘source index’ I developed for the dataset (read more about that here). Red means a residence-based treaty that gives fewer taxing rights to the developing country, while green means a source-based treaty that gives it more taxing rights.

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Links to high-res versions of individual images: Uganda map, Uganda bar chart, Vietnam, Mauritius, UK, Nordics

Uganda’s treaties are pretty red, meaning that most of its treaties restrict its taxing rights much more than average. Looking at the breakdown of the index shows that Uganda has some above-average withholding tax provisions, but its treaties are quite a lot worse than average in other areas. The slide show also gives some other countries for comparison. Vietnam’s treaties are mostly green, while Asian countries have got better deals from Mauritius (an offshore financial centre, not a developing country, in this context) than African ones. The UK’s treaties are pretty red, while the Nordics are very interesting: diverse in content, but consistent among themselves, giving good deals to Kenya and Sri Lanka, and worse ones to Tanzania and Bangladesh. This suggests that more source-based treaties with Nordic countries have been up for grabs for tough-negotiating developing countries.

Below I’ve posted some of Zach’s animated maps, on which it’s easier (and interesting) to follow the developments at earlier stages. There’s lots to comment on, but mostly I just keep watching them. The technical service fees map, at the bottom, is especially interesting, as it shows how countries have changed attitudes over time: watch how Pakistan suddenly changes position in the mid 1980s, for example.

World2

Above: All treaties in the dataset (red=residence-based, green=source-based)


Asia

Above: Asia (red=residence-based, green=source-based)


Africa2

Above: Africa (red=residence-based, green=source-based)


Vietnam2

Above: Vietnam (red=residence-based, green=source-based)


UK2

Above: UK (red=residence-based, green=source-based)


Nordic2

Above: Nordic countries (red=residence-based, green=source-based)


Netherlands2

Above: Netherlands (red=residence-based, green=source-based)


Slow WHT

Above: Management, technical service and consultancy fees WHT (green=included, red=excluded)

 

New data and working paper: measuring tax treaty negotiation outcomes

Today the International Centre for Tax and Development (ICTD) and ActionAid are launching a new dataset that I’ve developed over the last year. It’s the product of over a year’s work, mostly by an intrepid team of research assistants in the LSE law department, to code the content of over 500 tax treaties signed by developing countries. ActionAid, who funded the research assistants’ time, have also used the dataset to construct a league table for their campaigning work, and there’s a piece in the Guardian based on that. (I’m sure the headline, which criticises the UK, will provoke some debate.)

The aim of the dataset project is to make possible a whole lot of new research to get to the bottom of questions that have not been satisfactorily addressed in the literature to date. The jury is still out on whether tax treaties affect investment flows into developing countries, but do certain clauses matter more than others to investors? What determines the outcome of tax treaty negotiations: is it cooperation, power, or competence? What is a good outcome for a developing country from a tax treaty negotiation? Work on trade and investment agreements has already moved from a simple ‘is there a treaty?’ binary to studies based on the content of those agreements. With this dataset, we can do the same for tax treaties.

There’s also a working paper that I’ve written for ICTD, which sets out some of the initial conclusions I drew from simple descriptive work using the dataset. For example, here’s the chart showing how common treaty provisions that allow developing countries to tax foreign service providers have been over time. The difference between the two is that with a ‘service PE’, developing countries can only tax the company’s net profits, and only if it is physically present for a certain length of time; with a WHT clause, they can tax gross payments to foreign service providers, as most do in their domestic law, regardless of whether there is a physical presence.  The growth in both the provisions highlighted is quite notable.dataset1

The story for capital gains is more mixed. Article 13(4) is an anti-avoidance tool that allows a developing country to tax capital gains from the sale of a company whose value is mainly physical assets in the developing country, even if the company is located abroad. It’s becoming more common, which is not surprising since variations on it are included in both the OECD and UN model tax treaties. Article 13(5) gives a developing country the right to tax gains from the sale of any company resident in that country, even if the sale takes place abroad. Interestingly, this provision is becoming more scarce, though countries such as Vietnam have only recently begun to tax in this way in their domestic law. dataset2

I also constructed an index that evaluates the content of 24 different clauses within each tax treaty to assess how much of the developing country’s taxing rights it leaves intact (a higher value means a bigger share of taxing rights for the developing country). This chart shows that treaties between developing countries and OECD members are gradually becoming more favourable to the latter, while in contrast developing countries are starting to get better deals with countries outside the OECD.

Overall negotiated content by date of signature and type of treaty partner

dataset3

The downward trend is driven by falling withholding tax (WHT) rates, while the upward trend is primarily in permanent establishment (PE) provisions, as we can see by disaggregating the index into these different components.

Average values of category indexes for treaties signed in a given year

dataset4

This is new information that I don’t think people have been aware of before, so I’m quite excited about it. Here’s the summary of the working paper:

Measuring Tax Treaty Negotiation Outcomes:the ActionAid Tax Treaties Dataset

This paper introduces a new dataset that codes the content of 519 tax treaties signed by low- and lower-middle- income countries in Africa and Asia. Often called Double Taxation Agreements, bilateral tax treaties divide up the right to tax cross-border economic activity between their two signatories. When one of the signatories is a developing country that is predominantly a recipient of foreign investment, the effect of the tax treaty is to impose constraints on its ability to tax inward investors, ostensibly to encourage more investment.

The merits of tax treaties for developing countries have been challenged in critical legal literature for decades, and studies of whether or not they attract new investment into developing countries give contradictory and inconclusive results. These studies have rarely disaggregated the elements of tax treaties to determine which may be most pertinent to any investment-promoting effect. Meanwhile, as developing countries continue to negotiate, renegotiate, review and terminate tax treaties, comparative data on negotiating histories and outcomes is not easily obtained.

The new dataset fills both these gaps. Using it, this paper demonstrates how tax treaties are changing over time. The restrictions they impose on the rate of withholding tax developing countries can levy on cross-border payments have intensified since 1970. In contrast, the permanent establishment threshold, which specifies when a foreign company’s profits become taxable in a developing country, has been falling, giving developing countries more opportunity to tax foreign investors. The picture with respect to capital gains tax and other provisions is mixed. As a group, OECD countries appear to be moving towards treaties with developing countries that impose more restrictions on the latter’s taxing rights, while non-OECD countries appear to be allowing developing countries to retain more taxing rights than in the past. These overall trends, however, mask some surprising differences between the positions of individual industrialised and emerging economies. These findings pose more questions than they answer, and it is hoped that this paper and the dataset it accompanies will stimulate new research on tax treaties.

Tax treaties in sub-Saharan Africa: a critical review

The report I authored for Tax Justice Network-Africa is now available. It’s based on field research done a year ago and has been a little while getting into print.

Here’s a link to read it online at academia.edu

Here’s a link to download the PDF

Tax treaties in sub-Saharan Africa report cover

And here’s the introduction:

There is growing attention on the question of tax treaties signed by developing countries. The costs of tax treaties to developing countries have been highlighted in recent years by NGOs such as ActionAid and SOMO. During 2014, an influential IMF paper warned that developing countries “would be well-advised to sign treaties only with considerable caution,” and the OECD, as part of its Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project, proposes to add text to the commentary of its model treaty to help countries decide “whether a treaty should be concluded with a State but also…whether a State should seek to modify or replace an existing treaty or even, as a last resort, terminate a treaty.”

Meanwhile, some developing countries seem recently to have become concerned by the negative impacts of some of their treaties. Rwanda and South Africa have successfully renegotiated their agreements with Mauritius. Argentina and Mongolia have cancelled or renegotiated several agreements. Responding to this pressure, two of the developed countries whose treaty networks have raised concerns, the Netherlands and Ireland, have begun a process of review.

To investigate this apparent shift in opinion among policymakers, and to see what lessons can be drawn by other developing countries, Tax Justice Network Africa commissioned this study of current policy towards tax treaties in Uganda and Zambia, two countries that appear to be questioning past decisions. Fieldwork, which consisted of interviews with government officials and private sector tax advisers, took place in Kampala and Lusaka in September 2014.

Uganda has announced a review of its policy towards tax treaties, while Zambia is renegotiating several of its treaties. The Ugandan review has several motivations, according to finance ministry officials. The lack of a politically enforced policy to underpin negotiations is one concern. “When I go to negotiate, all I have is my own judgement,” according to a negotiator. “We thought that cabinet should express itself.” Officials are also concerned about the taxation of technical services provided by professionals in the oil industry, and are asking questions about the relatively poor deal Uganda got in its as yet unratified agreement with China.

Zambia, it seems, is keen to update very old treaties that were negotiated on poor terms by over-zealous officials in the 1970s. But a recent treaty signed with China on poor terms has created a difficult precedent, dragging down the terms of its recent negotiation with the UK. Zambia is also encumbered with several colonial-era treaties that need urgent attention.

This report is divided into four following sections. Section 2 describes the historical development of sub-Saharan Africa’s tax treaty network, including some of the reasons given for its development. Uganda and Zambia are used as examples. Section 3 looks at some of the core vulnerabilities in the content of tax treaties signed by African countries, set in the context of weaknesses in their domestic laws. Section 4 provides a critical perspective on recent initiatives taken by individual countries, regional organisations and other international organisations.

Section 5 provides recommendations for African countries. In summary, they should:

  • Review all their existing tax treaties and domestic legislation, to identify areas where they are most vulnerable to revenue loss. This should include permanent establishment definitions, protection from treaty shopping, and withholding and capital gains taxes.
  • Formulate ambitious national models by applying a “best available” approach to existing models (EAC, COMESA, UN), current treaties, and domestic legislation, none of which are currently adequate.
  • Identify red lines for negotiations from within these models.
  • Based on investment and remittance data, request renegotiations of treaties that have the greatest actual (or potential in terms of capital gains) cost. These renegotiations should be conducted on the basis of an improved distribution of taxing rights, not a “balanced” negotiation.
  • Cancel these high-impact treaties if the red lines cannot be obtained.
  • Incorporate an assessment of tax foregone due to tax treaties into an annual breakdown of tax expenditures.
  • Ensure that all tax treaties are subject to parliamentary approval as part of the ratification process.
  • Ensure that future updates to provisions of the UN and OECD model treaties, or to their commentaries and reservations/observations, reflect the positions set out in their national models.
  • Strengthen the African model treaties (EAC, COMESA, SADC) so that they act as opposite poles to the OECD model, rather than compromises between the UN and OECD models.

British tax treaties with developing countries, 1970-1981

It’s been quiet on here because of a field trip in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia, of which more anon. In the meantime, I’ve been given the opportunity to present a paper based on a chapter of my thesis several times this autumn. It’s a historical study of the politics of Britain’s tax treaty negotiations. I presented it at the excellent African Tax Research Network conference earlier this month, where a few treaty negotiators told me it was interesting to see what goes (well, went) on behind the scenes on the other side. I’ll be giving it again at the Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation’s doctoral workshop, and as the papers there are posted online, I thought it might be time to post it here, too.

Here’s the abstract:

Why have developing countries concluded so many double taxation treaties with developed countries? Much existing research assumes that this diffusion results from the active pursuit of such treaties by developing countries, which have been willing to give up considerable taxing rights through them, in order to attract inward investment. This paper uses archival documents to examine treaty negotiations between the UK and developing countries during the 1970s. It finds that in many cases negotiations were in fact driven by the UK as a means of increasing the competitiveness of British firms in developing country markets. It also reveals a divide between the tax specialist community, for whom tax treaties were a project to export ‘acceptable fiscal standards’, and generalists in business and government, for whom they were a means of securing lower effective tax rates. When these two groups’ objectives came into conflict, it was generally the experts who determined the UK’s policy objectives.

Here’s a link to the PDF.

Dobbeltbeskatningsoverenskomster!

The Folketinget (Danish parliament) chamber

The Folketinget (Danish parliament) chamber

At the risk of turning this into a travel blog, here I am in Denmark’s parliament building, the Borgen, a treat for aficionados of the TV programme. I spoke yesterday at a hearing organised by the parliament’s fiscal affairs committee on Denmark’s tax treaties with developing countries. The hearing was provoked by ActionAid Denmark’s questioning of the Denmark-Ghana tax treaty, which was ratified recently by the Danish parliament.

The British Public Accounts Committee this was not, and there was some good natured discussion between the different sides. Everyone agreed that businesses prefer there to be more tax treaties in place. The MPs, business and NGO representatives all agreed that there should be more transparency in the negotiation process.

We all agreed that having a treaty might improve the prospect of Danish investment into a developing country. Denmark’s tax minister and the industry representatives all said that a key consideration – perhaps the main consideration – for Danish treaty policy was to help make Danish companies competitive in the markets in which they invest. All of these arguments fell short, in my view, of establishing a clear cut, generalisable and evidence-based case that this is to the benefit of developing countries themselves.

Another point that I took from the discussion was the need to untangle the main things that tax treaties achieve, in a world where the most significant forms of double taxation are generally relieved unilaterally in the absence of an agreement:

  1. Clarifying definitions, providing dispute resolution, and other technical matters that make double taxation less likely.
  2. Giving tax authorities the legal basis for cooperation in enforcement matters.
  3. Offering businesses the reassurance of a credible commitment to fair and ‘civilised’ (not my word) tax treatment in the future.
  4. Reducing the taxing rights of the developing (ie source) country.

The case that treaties are necessary to provide items 1, 2 and perhaps 3 is strong. There is a (debatable) economic case for reducing source taxation to attract investment, made well by Clive Baxter from Maersk yesterday. But why respond to that case through bilateral treaties, which are harder to alter if the facts change, and which distort the inward investment market by treating investors from different countries differently? Why should the quid pro quo for items 1-3 be item 4? The fallacy, it seems to me, is to conflate the case for cooperation through treaties with the case for lower source taxation.

Here is my presentation. I’ll update this post when the others are all online, but they will only be of use to Danish speakers!

Uganda’s tax treaties: a legal and historical analysis

It’s been a bit quiet on here recently, the result of a busy term at LSE. At least I am at not the only PhD-student-and-tax-blogger whose blog has been suffering from the demands of teaching and research!

This week I’ve been at the International Centre for Tax and Development Annual Meeting, a chance to compare notes with other people working on tax and development, as well as with tax officials from a range of African countries. It’s a great environment to present in, because there is feedback on both an academic level and also from the tax practitioners present.

Here’s the presentation I gave based on my field research in Uganda earlier this year. This is just a taster of what will hopefully result in a couple of full length papers in the new year.

[Link to presentation on Slideshare]

Double tax treaties: a poisoned chalice for developing countries?

It’s been an interesting couple of days here at Strathmore University Business School in Nairobi. I’m at a conference to launch the School’s new Tax Research Centre, which has brought together tax officials, tax practitioners and academics to address some critical issues for Kenya, including anti-avoidance, taxing multinationals and tax treaties. The quality of discussion is very high, and certainly banishes the notion that there is no technical expertise in developing countries.

I was asked to speak on the title above, and my presentation is below. There was a fascinating exchange when I put up the slide showing Kenya’s current treaties. Not one person, including the tax advisers in the room, thought Kenya should ratify the treaties it has signed with Mauritius and the UAE.And nobody was even aware that a treaty had been signed with Iran! Interestingly, in contrast to the academic literature, the participants here took it as self-evident that tax treaties have no impact on the levels of inward investment into a country. But now Kenyan companies are starting to expand abroad, some people did advocate treaties to encourage this outward investment.

Link to presentation on slideshare.net